Russian Yellow Peas Report 2

The report on Russian Yellow Peas by Mr. Sanndip Goyal of V Ganesh Agro Foods Pvt Ltd highlights several key points about the market dynamics and production forecasts for 2024-25:

1. Production and Export Forecasts:
   1. Expected production: 3.75 million tonnes.
   1. Expected exports: 1.75 million tonnes, down from 3.02 million tonnes last year.
   1. Decline in exports is attributed to unfavorable growing conditions in the southern regions of Russia.
2. Regional Crop Conditions:
   1. Ural and Siberia federal districts report good crop conditions.
   1. Southern regions face challenges, impacting overall yield.
3. Market Outlook:
   1. The outlook for 2024-25 depends on the accuracy of Russian production forecasts and India’s decision on extending the exemption on pea import duties beyond October 31, 2024.
   1. India’s potential import volumes range between 200,000 to 250,000 tonnes, with possible increases if the exemption is extended.
4. Price Influences:
   1. Internal logistics costs have risen due to a shortage of railway wagons for long-distance transportation.
   1. Congestion at the Novorossiysk port limits bulk vessel loading, shifting operations to Kavkaz roads, dependent on smaller barges.
   1. Increased costs of fertilizers and other inputs.
   1. A new 7% export tax based on the Rouble, imposed from October 1, 2023.
5. Volgograd Oblast Conditions:
   1. The region started with good top-soil moisture but ended May 22% below the 15-year average due to heavy rainfall.
   1. NDVI was 6% below the 15-year average as of June 16.
6. Market Prices:
   1. There is currently a $10 to $15 per tonne disparity between what farmers and buyers agree on.
   1. Yellow peas are a competitive substitute for desi chickpeas in India, potentially affecting international market dynamics.
7. Domestic and International Consumption:
   1. Russia’s hog and poultry sectors consume about one million tonnes of peas annually, with stable consumption despite duties on sunflower meal exports.
   1. Spain and Italy are significant buyers, with Spain purchasing 400,000 tonnes and Italy 100,000 tonnes in 2023-24.

Overall, the report indicates a complex market influenced by local growing conditions, international trade policies, and internal logistics challenges, all contributing to the anticipated changes in production, export volumes, and pricing of Russian Yellow Peas for the upcoming year.