Disclaimer : The sources of this information gathered consists of various industrial forums, trade websites and the trending market updates.
⚫According to the predictions in the Russian Yellow Peas market, the anticipated Russian Yellow Peas production will be 2.5 million tonnes of exports, down from 3.02 million tonnes last year. It is forecasted that the Russian farmers will produce 3.75 million tonnes of the pulse crop and will export 1.75 million tonnes this year .This decline in exports is primarily due to unfavorable growing conditions in the southern regions of the country, leading to a reduced crop yield.
⚫While crops in the Ural and Siberia federal districts look “very good,” there are problems in the southern areas.
⚫It is also anticipated that the 2024-25 pea market outlook is going to revolve around which Russian forecast is correct and whether India decides to extend its exemption on pea import duties past the current expiry date of Oct. 31, 2024.
⚫According to the sources, the Russian Pea Crop price is expected to have a sharp increase due to rise in internal logistics cost because of lack of railway wagons for movement within Russia for larger distances over 500 kms. Novorossiysk port does not allow any bulk vessel of Peas due to heavy congestion with grain vessels and all bulk “Peas” are loaded from Kavkaz roads,– This is like an anchorage port considerably dependent on 3-5k barges from river ports to Kavkaz for any big vessel loading.
⚫Another reason for this increase in Russian Yellow Peas prices is due the rise in costs of fertilizers and other input costs in Russia. Also the Rouble based exchange export tax about 7% was imposed on 1st October, 2023 in Russia which never existed before.
⚫The Volgograd Oblast in southern Russia started the spring with ample Top-Soil moisture, but by the end of May it was 22 percent below the 15-year average due to heavy rainfall. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was six per cent below the 15-year average as of June 16.
⚫But for the time being, there is a $10 to $15 per tonne disparity between what farmers are willing to accept and what buyers are willing to pay. India is expected to purchase 200,000 to 250,000 tonnes of Russian peas unless they extend the duty exemption, in which case they will take more.
⚫It is predicted that the yellow peas are a competitive substitute for desi chickpeas in India. “If India does extend (its import duty exemption) it’s going to put the fear of God into a lot of other countries. Russia’s hog and poultry sectors consume about one million tonnes of peas annually.
⚫That volume was expected to drop in 2023-24 due to Russia’s $40 to $50 per tonne duty on sunflower meal exports.The thought was Russia’s livestock sector would switch fully to sunflower meal, which has 35 per cent protein and is cheaper than yellow peas.But that didn’t happen, and they still purchased big volumes of peas.
⚫Spain was the third biggest buyer of Russian peas in 2023-24, purchasing 400,000 tonnes of the crop, while Italy bought another 100,000 tonnes.
Regards,
Mr. Sanndip Goyal
V Ganesh Agro Foods Pvt Ltd
